I really can’t believe it’s been almost two years since I’ve written here. Many of you have been prodding me to get back to writing and I’ve come up with too many excuses. At the end of the day, I enjoy writing and should do more of it. So, I figured my favorite sports time of year was the perfect time. The NBA and NHL are gearing up for the playoffs . . . March Madness . . . Opening Day for MLB . . . The Masters. It’s the best. Plus, what is March Madness without doing way too much analysis and having your bracket busted by the end of the first weekend? Here we go!
First, we’ll go over some rules that I will be abiding by. Some of them I have used in the past. Many of them are new wrinkles because of the state of college basketball. With the portal and millions of dollars in NIL money getting thrown around by big schools, the rich have gotten richer and the mid majors are getting their talent taken from them. There is a decent drop off from the top 6 teams to the rest of the pool and a major drop off from big schools to the smaller ones. With a one and done format, anything can happen, of course. However, we’re going to play the odds and utilize some game theory.
RW RULES OF THUMB FOR MARCH MADNESS
- Don’t pick a 1, 2, or 3 seed to lose in the 1st round. I used to limit this to 1 and 2 seeds but with parity pretty much gone, I’m extending this to the 3 seed. Data going back to 1985 shows 2 seeds losing just 6.88% of the time and 3 seeds just 14.4% of the time. That’s not good and I guarantee you the odds are even worse for the underdogs this year. Look at the spreads for the first round. Not small.
- Stats matter. Don’t pick a team that loses the turnover battle. Don’t pick a team that can’t shoot or defend the 3-point line.
- Coaching matters.
- Don’t pick an upset if the underdog can’t shoot threes. Conversely, a good higher seed to go against is one that can’t defend the 3-point line. Even if a team keeps pounding the ball inside and getting consistent buckets, if they’re giving up 3 at the other end, they’re losing, they’re getting antsy, and they fall into the shootout trap. Oh, and how many times have we seen some mid-major catch fire from the 3-point line to come through with the upset? Ali Farokhmanesh!
- Don’t pick teams that got into the tournament mostly by how they played at home. Even though some of the early games will feature geographic advantages for some, it’s not the same as playing at home. Different gyms to have the eye adjust to. No student section. Etc. These games are on neutral courts. Plan accordingly.
- Picking upsets is fine, but don’t go bananas. I know this is for fun so picking the right upset does have the added glorious feel to it, but if you want to be at the top of the standings in two weeks, just be careful. If you like a 2 or 3 seed to lose in the first round, just have them losing their second round match up. You won’t lose points to the field and you’re still in a great spot if they do happen to lose that first round matchup.
BONUS: The deeper you get into the tournament, the more important it becomes to have a consistent scorer, preferably a ball handler. When I say scorer, I mean someone who can create on his own, not just a shooter. Balance matters, but the team that wins it all will have a go-to guy or two. Guaranteed.
BONUS 2: Stop reading here and find someone in your office who has no clue about any of these teams but understands what seedings mean. That person invariably wins all of these pools.
EAST REGION
FIRST ROUND
1 Duke, 2 UConn, and 3 Michigan State advance
4 Kansas over 13 Cal Baptist
I thought long and hard about picking the upset here but Darryn Peterson is just too good. I know that someone turned him into a player petrified of getting injured, and while Kansas can lose to anyone, they can also beat anyone too. That said, watch highlights of 5’10” Dominique Daniels Jr. and tell me you’re not tempted to pick Cal Baptist too.
5 St. John’s over 12 Northern Iowa
I like the way Northern Iowa plays but their inability to shoot the 3-ball, make free throws, or rebound are too many holes for an upset against St. Johns, especially with St. John’s being so good at defending the 3-point line.
11 South Florida over 6 Louisville
This one is simple. If Mikel Brown Jr. plays and is a full go, Louisville wins handily. If he doesn’t, it’s a close game and South Florida toughs this out. I don’t think Brown’s healthy enough if it’s Wednesday and they still don’t have him cleared.
7 UCLA over 10 UCF
My Bruins have been firing on all cylinders after it looked like UCLA would be the laughing stock of sports. Mick Cronin is one crazy guy. But with Cronin figuring out how to use Dent (who is 100% a go according to what I’ve read) and the rest of the Bruins rounding into form, this should be a win. UCF is 48th in the nation in 3-point percentage but have made just 14.8% of their three-pointers in their last three games. On the other side, UCLA is 16th in the nation in 3-point shooting, 41st in FT% (81.1% in their last three games), and 7th in assist-to-turnover ratio. As long as the Bruins are as healthy as they’re claiming to be, UCLA is not a team the higher seeds want to see on their sides of the bracket.
8 Ohio State over 9 TCU
TCU is a very trendy upset pick here but I don’t like it. Ohio State is a very efficient offensive team and TCU has a problem scoring the basketball. Ohio State’s weakness is on defense but TCU doesn’t have enough fire power to exploit it.
SECOND ROUND
1 Duke over 8 Ohio State
Duke is top 4 in the country in offensive AND defensive efficiency. Ohio State is not going to be the one to take them out, Duke’s injury issues notwithstanding.
2 UConn over 7 UCLA
UConn looked horrible in their last game against St. John’s and if my Bruins were healthy, I’d be tempted to take us to the Final Four. But, as alluded to above, I don’t know if UCLA is as healthy as it’s claiming to be. UConn is too good and Hurley is a March savant. Sadly for my Bruin boys, the run ends here, now go enjoy watching our women’s team, which is appointment viewing if you like quality basketball.
3 Michigan State over 11 South Florida
For the record, if Mikel Brown Jr. was a full go, I’d have Louisville in the Elite Eight. Louisville is that good with him. But he’s not. So Michigan State, 3rd in the nation in total rebounding percentage (do we expect anything less with an Izzo-coached team?), takes care of a live South Florida team late in the game.
4 Kansas over 5 St. John’s
I know St. John’s has won 19 of its last 20 and dominated the Big East down the stretch and in the conference tournament. But this isn’t your grandpa’s Big East. I also know that Kansas is a wild card. But that’s why I like them from a game theory perspective. They really do have the talent to beat anyone and as you’ll see below, I think Duke is vulnerable with its injuries. If the Jayhawks can find the nuts and bolts it had to beat Arizona, Houston, and Iowa State (by 21) earlier this season, Kansas can go very far. The reason I’m on Kansas’ side of that “if” is simple. Coach Bill Self. Remember folks, coaching matters.
SWEET 16
4 Kansas over 1 Duke
Just so that you are aware, I’m not the only crazy person picking Kansas to go a decent ways. Their odds to make it to the Final Four are only 14 to 1. Yes, I know that Duke sits at -120 but that is because everybody is simply penciling them in due to the nonstop coverage and Cameron Boozer’s awesomeness. And while, yes, Cameron Boozer is awesome, this is the wrong time of year to be missing an NBA 1st round pick in Patrick Ngongba II and a glue guy in Caleb Foster. Kansas has the talent to go toe-to-toe with Duke and will have the best player on the court in every game it plays (Peterson is the projected top overall pick in the NBA draft). Duke has shown some vulnerability down the stretch with both their offensive and defensive efficiency numbers dropping to end the season. Relying on Kansas feels gross, but so does rooting for Duke.
2 UConn over 3 Michigan State
Hurley vs. Izzo. One thing you can be sure of is that this game will be well-coached. While UConn looked awful against St. John’s this past week, this is also a team that beat St. John’s by 32 points less than a month ago, albeit at home, and yes, after losing at St. John’s by 9. All of this is to say that UConn had a bad game. Does Danny Hurley strike you as the type of coach to let his team perform like that again? Yeah, me neither. UConn is 8th in the nation in opponent effective field percentage and I see Michigan State having a tough time getting quality shots in this one. Michigan State is a great rebounding team, but so is UConn. I like the Huskies in a nail biter.
ELITE 8
2 UConn over 4 Kansas
UConn is too well-rounded for Kansas and Hurley is a coach who will either force Peterson to go for 50 and take everything else away or take Peterson away and force the rest of the Kansas team to beat him. I don’t think that Kansas is equipped for either of those situations.
MIDWEST REGION
FIRST ROUND
1 Michigan, 2 Iowa State, and 3 Virginia advance
4 Alabama over 13 Hofstra
I love the Speedy Claxton story and I don’t love Alabama’s second best player missing this game because he got arrested with over 2 pounds of weed. That said, Alabama is still too talented and can score at will. This is not where the bud will come back to bite them.
5 Texas Tech over 12 Akron
Akron is a trendy upset pick with Texas Tech losing All-American J.T. Toppin for the year. And while, yes, the Red Raiders have not looked as good without him, they can still shoot the lights out, standing at 5th in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage. Akron is 14th in the nation in shooting the 3-ball but has cooled off significantly down the stretch. The Zips also aren’t used to facing teams like Texas Tech, which is 46th in the nation defending the 3-ball.
6 Tennessee over 11 Miami (OH)/SMU
SMU could give Tennessee some problems but Rick Barnes hasn’t been getting bounced early as much as I thought he would in Knoxville. With Tennessee 2nd in the nation in total rebounding percentage while playing in the SEC, I just think the Vols are too physical for either Miami (OH) or SMU.
10 Santa Clara over 7 Kentucky
Kentucky has been hit or miss this season with its efficiency numbers going way down toward season’s end. Santa Clara is trying to make Steve Nash proud. They played Gonzaga tight both times they played one other and split their games with Saint Mary’s, with the loss coming by only 1 point. Santa Clara is 24st in the nation in offensive efficiency and I think Kentucky’s struggles taking care of the ball of late give a close game to Santa Clara.
9 Saint Louis over 8 Georgia
Why do we have to write out “Saint Louis” in college sports when in every other sport, or news column for that matter, it’s “St. Louis?” Both of these teams can get buckets but I like Saint Louis’ defense to be the deciding factor here. It also helps that Saint Louis is 2nd in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage.
SECOND ROUND
1 Michigan over 9 Saint Louis
Michigan is big. Like really big. Saint Louis might be good at shooting the ball but Michigan’s length will make those shots far more difficult. Michigan in a blowout.
2 Iowa State over 10 Santa Clara
Iowa State is one of six teams that I think can win it all (the others – Duke, Michigan, Florida, Arizona, and Houston). They’ve been knocking on the door a la Phil Mickelson during the Tiger era (hopefully Iowa State doesn’t become a d-bag like Phil) and this could be the year they kick it down. If you want to nit pick, they don’t should FT well at all but other than that, Iowa State is as complete a team as there is.
3 Virginia over 6 Tennessee
Virginia is another team that I like this year. They’ve done a great job with the portal and you’re going to be looking up a Belgian guy named Thijs De Ridder at some point during March Madness. I’m going to have a tough time picking between Iowa State and Virginia.
5 Texas Tech over 4 Alabama
One team lost a key player to injury. The other lost one to 2.1 pounds of marijuana, on the Monday of the first week of the tournament. Give me the team that kind of knows how to play as currently constructed.
SWEET 16
1 Michigan over 5 Texas Tech
Michigan is far too talented for the Red Raiders. With a healthy Toppin it’s another story. Unfortunately for Texas Tech, the real story is missing a household name.
3 Virginia over 2 Iowa State
This is a real Sophie’s Choice. I hyperlinked for you youngin’s. In what I see as a coin flip, I’ll take the team shooting the ball better down the stretch, but don’t hate me if Iowa State takes it.
ELITE 8
3 Virginia over 1 Michigan
Ask me three weeks ago and I’d have told you Michigan was my pick to win it all. However, they have really sputtered down the stretch. All of their key metrics are down except FT shooting. Virginia on the other hand is trending in the right direction and was a key bucket away from taking down Duke this past weekend. Virginia has won 13 of their last 15 with both losses coming to Duke (one on a neutral site, one away). I like the way Virginia is playing and I think they’re going to open some eyes.
SOUTH REGION
FIRST ROUND
1 Florida, 2 Houston, and 3 Illinois advance
4 Nebraska over 13 Troy
Nebraska wins a tournament game! Nebraska wins a tournament game!
5 Vanderbilt over 12 McNeese
McNeese (why did they drop the “State” in McNeese State?) may be a trendy pick but they don’t fit the mold of a Cinderella. They’re 299th in the country in 3-point shooting (not good for those who struggle with math) and on top of that, they’re 196th in the nation in total rebounding percentage. Vandy is a solid team and maybe it has some Pavia magic at its disposal?
11 VCU over 6 North Carolina
North Carolina is a 6-seed and 65-1 to punch a ticket to the Final Four. When a team loses its best player (who is projected to go at No. 4 in the NBA Draft), is facing a team that is better than good, and is only a 2.5-point favorite to win this game, you take the underdog. Has a 6-seed ever been 65-1 to make the Final Four? That’s pretty insane.
7 Saint Mary’s over 10 Texas A&M
This is going to be an interesting game with both teams playing such contrasting styles. I like Saint Mary’s ability to shoot the ball to be the difference here. Also, how do you write Saint Mary’s in the possessive. Is there another apostrophe after the “s?”
9 Iowa over 8 Clemson
The seeds should be flipped in this one. Iowa is actually favored to win the game and I agree.
SECOND ROUND
1 Florida over 9 Iowa
Iowa could give the Gators some problems but ultimately, Florida just has too much talent to lose this game.
2 Houston over 7 Saint Mary’s
My troubles with figuring out the possessive form of Saint Mary’s end here thanks to Houston’s defense.
3 Illinois over 11 VCU
Not that Illinois needed any luck, but getting to play an 11-seed here is a nice break. VCU is good but has nowhere near the talent level of Illinois.
5 Vanderbilt over 4 Nebraska
Nebraska had that magical run to start the season but has since come back to Earth. People have come to find out recently that Vandy is for real. They can score with anyone and if the game is close, Vandy is 4th in the nation in FT% while Nebraska is 83rd and falling of late. Give me Vanderbilt in a close one.
SWEET 16
1 Florida over 5 Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is good, but not take down a 1-seed good after waxing them a week ago good. Florida will have had a bad taste in its mouth for a while after getting pummeled by Vandy in the SEC Tournament. That was an embarrassing loss for Florida and a good wake-up call. I don’t expect the Gators to take Vanderbilt lightly this time around.
3 Illinois over 2 Houston
Houston is a solid team but this isn’t last year’s team. While they have added phenomenal freshman Kingston Flemmings, their bench leaves something to be desired. Illinois also has a fabulous freshman of its own in Keaton Wagler and he’s not alone as far as talent goes on this team. Illinois is the best team on offense in the country, top-10 in total rebounding percentage, and takes care of the ball. Illinois also does a good job a defending the perimeter while Houston has shown that good teams can find and make their open 3’s against them. Illinois is a better than good team.
ELITE 8
3 Illinois over 1 Florida
I want to like Florida to come out of this region and try to go back-to-back but I just like Illinois’ roster and recent play a tad bit more. Illinois has great guard play, rebounds, and can score against anyone. If you’re thinking this is some bold pick, it’s not. Illinois is only +370 to make the Final Four. I like those odds.
WEST REGION
FIRST ROUND
1 Arizona, 2 Purdue, and 3 Gonzaga advance
4 Arkansas over 13 Hawai’i
The name Darius Acuff Jr. will be a familiar one to you by this time next week. This game is going to be up and down but that suits Arkansas just fine. Hawai’i is a good team. Arkansas is just better.
5 Wisconsin over 12 High Point
When the brackets came out, I thought for sure I’d have High Point. While I do think that they are a game underdog, Wisconsin is a solid team and while Wisconsin isn’t the best defensively, High Point can’t shoot well enough to take advantage. Give me Wisconsin to win and High Point to cover the 10.5, if gambling was legal of course.
11 Texas/NC State over 6 BYU
Here’s another team I liked a little over a month ago but Richie Saunders’ ACL tear changed all that. BYU still has AJ Dybantsa, projected No. 2 overall in the NBA Draft and every bit deserving of it, but BYU hasn’t been the same without Saunders. I like the play-in winner (I think Texas) to win this one.
10 Missouri over 7 Miami
Coach Jai Lucas has done a great job at Miami and I think that the future looks bright for the U, just not this year. They’re not deep enough and Mark Mitchell is a difference-maker for Missou.
9 Utah State over 8 Villanova
Another 8 vs. 9 game where the seeds should be switched. Utah State is favored by 1.5 and I think they cover with their defensive effort.
SECOND ROUND
1 Arizona over 9 Utah State
Sorry Utah State. You picked the wrong bracket for a 1 vs. 9 upset.
2 Purdue over 10 Missouri
Purdue is rolling and Missouri won’t be able to stop them from scoring. Purdue by double digits.
3 Gonzaga over 11 NC State/Texas
I know you’ll be shocked to hear this, but Mark Few has a really good team again this year. Too solid for the play-in winner.
4 Arkansas over 5 Wisconsin
This is a really tough game to pick. Both of these teams are highly efficient at scoring the ball but not so much with the defense and rebounding. I know I’d recommend the over in this one. Both teams take care of the ball and force opponents to beat them. I think this goes down to the wire so give me the best player on the floor, Darius Acuff Jr., with a buzzer beater to win this one.
SWEET 16
1 Arizona over 4 Arkansas
Darius Acuff Jr. is going to get his in this one but Arizona is a far more balanced team. They seem to find a way to win down the stretch and their own lottery pick Brayden Burries is a big part of the reason. Whereas Arkansas struggles defensively and with rebounding the ball, Arizona is a complete team.
2 Purdue over 3 Gonzaga
If Braden Huff was healthy, I’d have Gonzaga winning this game, but he dislocated his kneecap. I’m no doctor but that doesn’t sound good. Gonzaga has talent but losing Huff has been a big loss for the Zags. Pair that with Purdue’s form of late and I like Purdue in a close one.
ELITE 8
1 Arizona over 2 Purdue
If this one is close, neither of these teams are all that great from the free throw line which could make things interesting. Unfortunately for the Boilermakers, I don’t think this one is all that close down the stretch. I think Purdue gives Arizona its best shot with its prowess on offense but Arizona has too many skill players for Purdue and its 161st-ranked defense in the nation to handle.
FINAL FOUR
3 Illinois over 2 UConn
These two teams will make for an interesting matchup. It’s kind of like when a boxing fight is a clash of styles. We’ll know early on which team is getting its way with the type of game that’s being played. If UConn can muck it up, I like UConn. I just happen to think that Illinois is too good and too deep to get thrown off its game and in a close one, give me Keaton Wagler as the difference maker.
1 Arizona over 3 Virginia
This is a very interesting matchup. I just looked at all of the statistics I like to reference when filling out my bracket and these two teams are eerily similar. However, Arizona is ranked slightly higher than Virginia in all of them. I like Arizona here in a close one.
CHAMPIONSHIP
1 Arizona over 3 Illinois
The 2005 NCAA Championship game pitted these two great schools against one another and what a classic it was with Illinois winning 90-89 in overtime. It’s 2026 and Arizona gets its long awaited revenge. 81-78 Arizona.