Roe v. Wade Is Gone – The GOP Won and We Let It Happen

The Republicans won and we lost. You’re welcome to read all 213 pages of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision but it is all summed up by what I just wrote. They won. We lost. To say that the Dobbs opinion was based upon Constitutional law and nothing else is to put one’s head in the sand and pretend that the United States Supreme Court is not a political entity. The Republican Party recognized that reality long ago.[1] Democratic Presidents who have nominated Justices to the Supreme Court also have come to recognize the impact of appointing Justices the Supreme Court because of the power it wields. However, the rest of us in the Democratic Party seem to be living in a dream world, acting as though justice and fairness reign supreme in our highest court and that who sits as President when a SCOTUS seat becomes vacant is not of the utmost importance. Spoiler alert, although I guess I already spoiled it: Justice and fairness are a distant second to political affiliation at the Supreme Court and appointing Justices with shared values is of the utmost importance.

I’m writing this piece for two reasons: 1) To examine how we got to the day where Roe v. Wade was overturned; and 2) To use the answer to the previous examination to forge the plan ahead for the Democratic Party.

ITEM 1: How Did We Get to The Day Where Roe v. Wade Was Overturned?

Roe v. Wade was overturned because the Republican Party and its backers made enacting anti-choice legislation and obtaining anti-choice court rulings integral and identifiable platforms of their party. It’s worth noting that the other two are guns and not having to pay taxes (not sure how the government runs without taxes, but hey, it’s not my platform).

I’m sure you’re asking yourself the obvious question: How did they do it? It is one thing to say they wanted a woman’s right to choose to be eliminated after Roe v. Wade was decided in 1973, but it is a whole different ball of wax to make it happen. Thankfully for us, the Republican Party did not hide anything when it came to their tactics. To do away with a woman’s right to choose, the Republicans realized that they needed their elected representatives to be anti-choice and they needed judges who governing a woman’s right to choose to be anti-choice.

What made matters easier for the Republicans after they identified the goals of needing anti-choice elected officials and judges was that obtaining both goals could be obtained by the same means. All they had to do was have their chosen anti-choice leaders run for office and win. Why did that accomplish both goals? Because the elected officials were in positions of power whereby they could get the anti-choice judges onto the bench. Let’s delve a little further into the plan.

The Republican Party was acutely aware that a solely far-right, Christian conservative platform was not going to get them the Presidency. Why? Because the majority of the people comprising the voting population in our country do not identify as far-right Christian conservatives. With that knowledge, the Republicans realized that they needed to figure out a way where numbers mattered less, media spin mattered more, and so they started from the bottom and worked their way up.

In the last Presidential election won by President Biden in 2020, 66.1% of eligible voters submitted ballots. While I wish that number were far higher, it’s pretty high by our country’s low standards. Conversely, in midterm elections, the voter turnout has been far lower with 50% of the eligible voters casting ballots in the 2018 midterm elections and 36.7% of eligible voters submitting ballots in the 2014 midterm elections. Now if you think a 36.7% voter turnout is embarrassing, I would advise that you skip the rest of this paragraph because local election voter turnout is even worse and that is what the Republican Party realized. Even in contentious mayoral races in cities where local elections are covered extensively by the media, voter turnout rarely cracks 30% of a city’s eligible voters. For instance, in New York City’s 2017 local election, only 25% of the city’s registered voters submitted a ballot, but they beat out my city of Los Angeles that year, which had only a 20% turnout of eligible voters. Local elections are extremely important in two of the largest and most influential cities in the world, yet 3 out of every 4 people in New York City and 4 out of every 5 people in Los Angeles didn’t care enough to vote. The National Civic League put out some statistics in 2020 and they are startling. In the National Civic League’s report, Bradenton, Florida, identified as a city with “high local turnout,” had 47% of eligible voters cast ballots in its mayoral election. On the other end of the spectrum, Fort Worth, Texas had 6% of its eligible voters cast ballots in its mayoral election. SIX PERCENT!

Convincing a majority of 66.1% of United States voters that a woman’s right to choose what she can and cannot do with her own body is tough sledding. But convincing a majority of the 6% of Fort Worth, Texas citizens motivated enough to go to the polls to cast their ballots with a checked box for their candidate? Those were the types of races that the Republicans feasted upon. They poured money into those races and won. The Republican Party figured out that winning local and state elections, with state elections having similarly low voter turnout, would get them to their goal as long as they were patient. State elections determine who governs states and, in many states, governors appoint the judges who serve in the highest courts in those states.

Of course, you’re now wondering, how does winning local and state elections or getting state judges translate to a Supreme Court decision that overturns Roe v. Wade? It’s shockingly simple. Once the Republican Party had enough of its chosen candidates in power, such that they controlled state houses, they got to engage in gerrymandering[2] when they drew the district lines. Those district lines determine who become members of Congress, which, of course, the Republicans knew they needed to achieve their goals. They also got to determine state election laws, which meant they could restrict certain eligible voters from voting. Those “certain eligible voters” restricted from voting in Republican run states just happened to be people of color, who have historically voted Democratic for obvious reasons.

Once the Republicans had enough elected federal officials, all they needed to do was win the Presidency.[3] Then, the Republican Party did two things: 1) When they had the Presidency, they appointed federal judges at a rapid pace;[4] and 2) They held up Democratic federal judicial appointees, with the most famous case being that of Senator Mitch McConnell engaging in the height of hypocrisy by holding up President Obama’s appointment of now Attorney General Merrick Garland to the United States Supreme Court. Republican judicial appointees to the federal courts and, more importantly, to the Supreme Court, were anti-choice to their core. The Republicans even had lists of judges who they wanted elevated to the highest court in the land penned by entities like The Federalist Society. 

To sum it up, the Republicans outhustled the Democratic Party in local and state elections, gerrymandered and restricted voting to sway the votes in their favor, and then stayed united when it came to anti-choice law. More simply put, they elected anti-choice candidates to serve as their elected representatives and those elected representatives appointed judges who shared the same anti-choice stances as the people who appointed them. The Republican Party’s winning plan required patience, hard work, and a willingness to do whatever it took to achieve the goal of overturning Roe v. Wade. They stuck to that winning plan and now Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization is the law of the land.

ITEM 2: How Do We as the Democratic Party Undo the Harm?

To answer that question, we kind of have to get back into the Item 1 section from above again and examine how we got here, but the Item 1 section was way too long already, so I’m going to pretend that the analysis belongs in this section. Allow me to explain. A substantial factor as to how we got here in the first place involves eligible voters in the Democratic Party and their actions when it came to election time. I know I touched on voter turnout above, but I want to focus specifically on the Democratic Party voters.

You may have noticed an assumption without justification I made above. I glossed over much of the “How the Republicans won Presidential elections” part. It’s important to fully understand that part though because, as we discussed above, the Presidency was inherently a prerequisite for carrying out the Republican Party’s plan to ban a woman’s right to choose. It’s even more important to understand because the Republicans won even though their jobs were more difficult because in Presidential elections, there are usually more registered voters who identify, or are registered, as Democratic Party voters than there are for the Republican Party. Two things helped the Republicans overcome that deficit: 1) The Electoral College shifts the balance away from Democratic leaning states with large cities toward rural states with small populations; and 2) More Republican leaning voters turned out than Democratic leaning voters when Republicans won (kind of obvious, I know).

Looking at the two items in the last paragraph, it is patently obvious where the Democratic Party’s focus should be. You’re not going to do away with the Electoral College any time soon so you have to get people on your side and get them to actually cast ballots.

The Democratic Party as an entity is and has been losing that battle. A Gallup poll showed that in the first quarter of 2021, 49% of people identified as Democratic or leaning Democratic to 40% Republican or Republican leaning. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the numbers nearly flipped. 47% identified as Republican or Republican leaning to 42% Democratic or Democratic leaning. Why?

There are some factors beyond the Democratic Party’s control. The pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were not going to help any party in power. Inflation is high, but it’s high all over the world. That doesn’t matter in politics though because the opposing party can pretend that it’s all the party in power’s fault, even when facts belie such a stance.

However, even if we ignore the pandemic, Russia’s war of aggression, and rising inflation around the world, the Democratic Party has shot itself in the foot more times than we can count as well. A few examples help shed light on what ails the Democratic Party from within.

First, we can’t have policies that are on their face insane because insane policy positions alienate voters. The city of San Francisco just recently recalled their District Attorney because he tried to turn society into that movie, “The Purge,” where crime was legal. Even in “The Purge” it was only legal for a night. Not so in San Francisco. Unsurprisingly, crime rose and then the District Attorney was left wondering, “Why do they want me out?”

Second, our messaging is abysmal. For those who just started paying attention, let me say it again: No more shooting ourselves in the foot! Here, let’s practice. Instead of having the slogan, “Defund the Police,” let’s have slogans like, “End Racist Policing,” or, “Reform Policing: End the Murders.” If you ask people who support “Defund the Police” I guarantee you that most of them don’t want “The Purge” and simply want racism and murdering to be things of the past in police departments nationwide. But that’s not what “Defund the Police” conveys. Running against “Defund the Police” is as easy as it gets. We need to stop doing the other side’s work for them. It’s a lot harder to run as a Democratic Party candidate associated with “The Purge” than to run with sentiments that most people will agree with like the ideas that racist policing and officers committing murder are bad things. Messaging is important.

Third, we must remain as united as possible. We must stop eating our own. The Republicans only accomplished their goals because on their big ticket items: 1) Woman’s Right to Choose, 2) Guns; and 3) Taxes, they have remained united. My fellow Democratic Party members? Nope! A shining example of Democratic Party members taking each other down instead of focusing the nation’s attention on our main goals, such as equal rights for all, occurred during President Biden’s State of the Union address this year. The Republican Party had a rebuttal, as is customary. But do you know who else did? A bloc within the Democratic Party. You read that correctly. More than a few elected representatives and supporters within the Democratic Party decided that it would be a good idea to attack a sitting President from our own party after his State of the Union address. Not only was a Democrat vs. Democrat rebuttal a thing this year, but the person who delivered that rebuttal, Rep. Rashida Tlaib, is arguably the most divisive person in our party. Rep. Tlaib has the honor of being disliked by pretty much every single Republican and Independent voter and I am quite sure, a good number of Democratic Party voters, like me! I’m a Democratic Party member and, call me crazy, but I don’t think it’s a good idea to have someone from our party who is credibly identified as being antisemitic[5] give a rebuttal after President Biden’s State of the Union address. Shooting ourselves in the foot is not the only reason we lose, but it sure doesn’t help.

One question has irked me for a while though, why must getting out the vote be the Democratic Party’s job? Why can’t it be the job of every individual who identifies as a Democratic Party member, as a liberal, or as a progressive? After all, voters elect representatives, not political parties.

We have a perfect example of how not voting, voting third party, or pouting like a toddler in the general election of 2016 against Trump by writing in Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton translated to the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Let’s take Colin Kaepernick, whose philanthropy and stances against the  police brutality and racism I agree with and admire. Mr. Kaepernick, shortly after the 2016 election said out loud the part that many people keep quiet about. After the 2016 election, he said that he didn’t vote and did so with no remorse. Why? In his words, “I’ve been very disconnected from the systematic oppression as a whole. So, for me, it’s another face that’s going to be the face of that system of oppression. And to me it didn’t really matter who went in there, the system still remains intact that oppresses people of color.” To say or even think that it didn’t matter who won between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump is about as irresponsible as it gets.[6]

For the sake of clarity, I am not saying that Colin Kaepernick lost the election for us. His comments came after the election and he’s only one person. What I am saying is that far too many people who identified as liberals or progressives sat out the 2016 election, voted third party, or wrote-in a candidate. If you take those votes and add them up, you find the answer as to how we got President Donald Trump as our nation’s 45th President. Those votes were the difference in the swing states where the margins of victory were historically slim.

Pop quiz: How many Supreme Court Justices did President Trump about to the Court? Three.[7] Pop quiz part two: How did those three Supreme Court Justices vote in the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade? You know the answer.

Elections matter. If you want to enact change, vote. And please, stop marching if you’re eligible to vote and not voting. Yes, marches and protests have led to change, most famously with the enactment of the Voting Rights Act of 1965. But guess what, because the Republicans won elections since then, do you know what was gutted in a 2013 Supreme Court ruling by Supreme Court Justices appointed by Republican Presidents? The Voting Rights Act of 1965.

The stakes are as high as ever and the action required of us as citizens to enact change is so simple. We merely have to vote for the candidates who most represent our values. We can’t wait for perfect candidates. We can’t pout when the candidates we wanted to win in primaries lose and then sit out of general elections. It is irresponsible and the repercussions, as we now see, reverberate for generations. I am sorry to say that this Supreme Court is not going to stop at Roe v. Wade. We are most likely going to see decades of rulings stripping people of their rights with Justices Clarence Thomas and Brett Kavanaugh front and center in all of them. 

Millions of people around the world fight and die for the right to vote in free and fair elections. Many of you reading this have done the same yourselves and many of you have family members who have done the same in serving our country to protect and preserve tenet that our central to our country including, the ability and right to vote in free and fair elections. 

Do your civic duty. Vote.

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[1] Want to stump a Constitutional “Originalist” who, with some justification, argues that Roe v. Wade was improperly decided based upon law and precedent? Ask that same person where the Framers of the Constitution said that corporate entities should have First Amendment rights like people so that they can spend unlimited amounts of money to sway elections. Or you can do the easy thing and just say, Citizens United v. Federal Elec­tion Commis­sion. You can even shorten it to, “Citizens United.” I think they’ll know what you mean.

[2] Gerrymandering based upon party affiliation has not been struck down by the Supreme Court. It is only universally illegal when it targets members of protected classes (e.g., race). That said, Republicans don’t really hide their racial gerrymandering too well. Unfortunately, our Democratic Party is engaging in gerrymandering against Orthodox Jews in New York but nobody seems to care. That’s a story for another day though.

[3] Sadly, we as the Democratic Party have helped them in that regard, which I will discuss more below.

[4] Presidents from the Democratic Party eventually figured out that they needed to rapidly appoint federal judges to the bench, but not until the Clinton years. Beginning with President Jimmy Carter in 1977, we’ve had 5 Presidential terms plus President Biden’s current almost year and a half with Democratic Party Presidents and 6 Republican Party Presidential terms. Total Court appointees: 1,184 Republican federal judges – 983 Democratic Party federal judges. Supreme Court Justice appointees: Republican Party Presidents 10 – Democratic Party Presidents 4.

[5] By the way, it’s not just that Washington Post column that has called Rep. Tlaib out for her antisemitism. Fire up the Google machine and you’ll find plenty of evidence out there if you don’t believe me.

[6] For irony’s sake, go to the bottom of the link to the article on Colin Kaepernick’s philanthropy and you’ll find this: “He made a pledge of $25,000 to the Center for Reproductive Rights in January.”

[7] As I stated above, Senator Mitch McConnell’s abhorrent conduct and the complicity of the Republican Party in holding up President Obama’s appointment of Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court changed the course of history. However, it would be irresponsible of me not to mention that Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who I admire greatly, made a selfish and harmful decision to refuse to retire While President Obama was still in office. If both of those actions go the other way, instead of a 6-3 vote overturning Roe v. Wade, we would have had a 5 to 4 vote upholding it in the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision.