After going 16-6-2 against the spread last week, as Frank Costanza would say . . .
Weekly Reminder 1: As always, our strategy for most games (we go with our gut occasionally) is pretty simple: Vegas doesn’t like losing money so we go against the overwhelming trends (e.g. when one team has 80% of the public behind it), which leads to many underdog picks because the public is always in love with favorites. Unfortunately, our strategy also incorporates picking UCLA every week because Mr. Rudin went there. We still won somehow.
Weekly Reminder 2: Some of the games on Yahoo show the spread as “off”, which means a spread has not been assigned. Yahoo makes those games an even line. We won’t be making picks for those in this column. Our picks will appear here in a weekly column on Thursday mornings until season’s end or the time where we realize that our picks have become so putrid that they become embarrassing to post, whichever comes first.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +3 vs. MARSHALL
We like MTSU to win this game outright.
NEW MEXICO +7.5 vs. COLORADO STATE
New Mexico is not any good, but that spread is way too high because neither is Colorado State.
FLORIDA STATE -7 vs. LOUISVILLE
Louisville’s athletics are reeling after the basketball scandal. Don’t expect much from their football team either.
RUTGERS +9 vs. PURDUE
Purdue has been great this year covering spreads of 14 or more. Giving 9 points is a very different story.
IDAHO +15 at MISSOURI
80% of the public on Missouri. You know what to do.
IOWA -1.5 at NORTHWESTERN
Maybe Iowa put all of the oddsmakers to sleep too? This spread should be over a field goal.
TOLEDO -14.5 vs. AKRON
Maybe “holy Toledo” works for us this week?
OKLAHOMA STATE -7 at TEXAS
Texas has improved, but they’re not on the Pokes’ level.
IOWA STATE +6 at TEXAS TECH
This is the time of year where Iowa State starts playing the part of the spoiler.
GEORGIA STATE +7.5 vs. TROY
Georgia State is quietly having a nice little run.
MIAMI -17 vs. SYRACUSE
Miami is going to roll in this one.
TENNESSEE +34.5 at ALABAMA
Look, we’re not feeling good about this pick because how can you ever feel good going against Alabama, but 34.5 points over Tennessee? That sounds like an awful lot.
ARIZONA STATE +9 at UTAH
Utah is going to be downtrodden after blowing that game against ‘SC last week. ASU is coming off of the high of beating Washington.
NAVY +7.5 vs. CENTRAL FLORIDA
Navy is a tough place to go into and win by more than a TD.
KANSAS STATE +14 vs. OKLAHOMA
78% of the public on the Sooners. We’ll take the coach who looks like your local librarian.
KENTUCKY +10.5 at MISSISSIPPI STATE
Kentucky isn’t the SEC doormat that they usually are. This will be a close game.
FLORIDA ATLANTIC -3.5 vs. NORTH TEXAS
North Texas is not going to look good on the road in this game.
TULANE +11.5 vs. SOUTH FLORIDA
89% of the public is on South Florida. That is quite high.
MISSISSIPPI +7 vs. LSU
LSU has looked better lately, but it seems like smoke and mirrors to us.
WAKE FOREST +7 at GEORGIA TECH
86% of the public is with the Yellow Jackets. Go the other way.
PENN STATE -9.5 vs. MICHIGAN
Statement game for Penn State.
USC +3.5 at NOTRE DAME
We can’t figure out why ‘SC is the underdog in this game.
ARIZONA -3 at CALIFORNIA
Arizona is putting things together right now. Cal is actually decent, but they’ll fade late in this one.
WYOMING +14 at BOISE STATE
Last week’s win was big for Boise State. Look for them to revert back to their mediocre form this week.
FRESNO STATE +7.5 at SAN DIEGO STATE
86% of the public is with the Aztecs. Sorry SDSU, can’t roll with you this week.
LAST WEEK: 16-6-2
SEASON: 77-86-2