Hopefully all of you are done vomiting after watching everybody on ESPN whine about Syracuse not making the tournament. I’m done vomiting but I’m not quite done crying after seeing where my UCLA Bruins got placed. [1]
I write this paragraph every year and it holds true year in and year out. This is my favorite time of year. The Masters is in a few weeks, along with the first pitch of baseball season. The NBA and NHL are rounding into their playoffs. European soccer league titles are being decided. Most importantly, it’s bracket time!
It’s the time of year when people inexplicably read what I write and think that I know what I’m doing. Nobody knows what they’re doing with March Madness. I finished third out of a hundred and some odd people last year in a pool despite losing my national champion in the first round! There are buzzer beaters, about thirty teams nobody has seen play, and the average person can probably name about one player per team, if that. But who cares? Filling out brackets is the single best sports fan activity, especially when you couple it with Thursday through Sunday’s games coming up.
So without further ado, here comes my yearly column where I ignore what I just wrote and give you what I have gleaned after spending an inordinate amount of time learning about teams that will break my heart in three days.
First, we’ll go over some rules that I will be abiding by. Some of them I have used in the past. Many of them are new wrinkles because of the state of college basketball. For instance, there is a ton of parity because the marquee teams lose their best players every year to the draft and the global nature of the game has led to a bigger talent pool. What does that mean? More close games!
RW RULES OF THUMB FOR YOUR BRACKET
Don’t pick a 1 or 2 to lose in the 1st round. Despite that there is a ton of parity, your odds of nailing the first ever 1 over 16 or the almost as unlikely 2 over 15 are slim to none. Don’t pick them. A few too many bad upset picks and you’re out of your bracket before things even get underway. We’ve seen more 3 seeds get up-ended in recent years but I usually recommend staying away from a 3-14 upset as well.
Stats matter. Don’t pick a team that loses the turnover battle. Don’t pick a team that can’t shoot or defend the 3-point line.
Coaching matters. Look at some of the players to come out of Texas when Rick Barnes ran the show. How did they never go deep into the tournament for about a decade? Coaching.
Don’t pick an upset if the underdog can’t shoot threes. Conversely, a good higher seed to go against is one that can’t defend the 3-point line. Even if a team keeps pounding the ball inside and getting consistent buckets, if they’re giving up 3 points at the other end, they’re losing, they’re getting antsy, and they fall into the shootout trap. Oh, and how many times have we seen some mid-major catch fire from the 3-point line to come through with the upset? Ali Farokhmanesh is still my favorite name. Just watch this clip. The onions to shoot that three. Unfortunately the President has probably kicked him out of the country for having one of them foreign terrorist sounding names.[2]
Don’t pick teams that got into the tournament mostly by how they played at home. The committee seemed to figure that out this season by not letting a 2-11 on the road Syracuse team in. Even though some of the early games will feature geographic advantages for some, it’s not the same as playing at home. Different gyms to have the eye adjust to. No student section. Etc. These games are on neutral courts. Plan accordingly.
BONUS: The deeper you get into the tournament, the more important it becomes to have a consistent scorer/playmaker. When I say scorer, I mean someone who can create on his own, not just a shooter. Balance matters, but the team that wins it all will have a go-to guy (e.g. Lonzo Ball, Jayson Tatum, Malik Monk). Guaranteed.
BONUS 2: Stop reading here and find someone in your office who has no clue about any of these teams but understands what seedings mean. That person invariably wins all of these pools.
EAST REGION
FIRST ROUND
1 Villanova and 2 Duke advance
3 Baylor over 14 New Mexico State
Baylor is overrated and I do like New Mexico State, but the Aggies just haven’t played anyone all year and can’t shoot the three. Bad combo.
4 Florida over 13 ETSU
The injury bug bit Florida, and I do love T.J. Cromer and ETSU, but Florida is just too good in the backcourt.
5 Virginia over 12 UNCW
Virginia is probably not good enough offensively to advance too far into the tournament, but they’re too good defensively to lose this game.
6 SMU over 11 Providence/USC
SMU is far better than a six seed. SMU by double digits regardless of who comes out.
10 Marquette over 7 South Carolina
This is a clash of Marquette’s firepower vs. South Carolina’s defense. This game will come down to late game execution and I favor the nation’s best three-point shooting team in that regard.
8 Wisconsin over 9 Virginia Tech
Wisconsin limped into the tournament, playing very inconsistently down the stretch and Virginia Tech shoots over 40% from three, but Wisconsin is more seasoned and won’t freeze up down the stretch. Virginia Tech is a program on the rise. They’re just not there yet.
SECOND ROUND
1 Villanova over 8 Wisconsin
‘Nova is a great blend of effort and efficiency. Wisconsin is going to need more seasoning than a Lawry’s steakhouse to win this one.
2 Duke over 10 Marquette
Duke was the pre-season favorite and they’re showing that form since the return of Coach K and the sending of Captain Trip-a-Lot to the bench for some instant offense in the second unit. Marquette can shoot, but Duke can defend the perimeter.
6 SMU over 3 Baylor
Baylor is athletic and a good defensive team that throws a variety of looks at you. But they turn the ball over a ton and SMU isn’t the type of team that will struggle on the boards against Baylor. Baylor has a tough time scoring in the half court and will lose a close one.
4 Florida over 5 Virginia
So it turns out that Malcolm Brogdon guy on Virginia last year was pretty good. Virginia is sorely missing him and can go for long stretches without scoring. Florida wins this ugly game.
SWEET 16
1 Villanova over 4 Florida
Florida’s lack of depth up front following Egbunu’s injury will cost them in this one. Villanova is too physical for Florida and ekes by.
2 Duke over 6 SMU
I root against the Dukies as much as the next guy, but they look like a national championship caliber team the way they’re playing right now and losing to an SMU team that hasn’t exactly been playing the world beaters this season is not in the cards.
ELITE 8
2 Duke over 1 Villanova
I’ve gone back and forth on this one roughly 1,000,000 times. I think this comes down to Duke forcing some tough shots in the latter part of the game and Tatum taking over.
MIDWEST REGION
FIRST ROUND
1 Kansas and 2 Louisville advance
3 Oregon over 14 Iona
A lot will be made of Oregon’s losing Boucher to an injury, but Oregon is still plenty good and is not to be taken lightly.
4 Purdue over 13 Vermont
Purdue is an underrated four seed despite the fact that you probably haven’t seen them play this season. They have a contender for player of the year in Swanigan and are efficient on both ends. Not a recipe for an early upset.
12 Nevada over 5 Iowa State
Both teams can shoot the lights out and both teams get up and down the court. Flip a coin. In this case, why not pick the upset in the famed 5 vs. 12 game?
11 Rhode Island over 6 Creighton
A healthy Creighton squad would have been a tough out in this bracket. But they are running into a Rhode Island team trending the opposite way regarding health and ready to make a run. It’s no surprise that despite it being a 6 vs. 11 game, Creighton is only a one-point favorite.
10 Oklahoma State over 7 Michigan
Michigan is going to be a trendy pick after the run they just went on, but do not sleep on the Pokes. The Big 10 isn’t a great conference this year and Michigan is an average team on both ends of the court. The Pokes on the other hand boast the most efficient offense in the country. That enables them to squeak by.
8 Miami over 9 Michigan State
It just depends on which Miami team shows up. The one that beat UNC and Duke, or the one that lost to Wake and Virginia Tech. Flip a coin, but I’m betting on Miami outworking Michigan State in a sloppy game.
SECOND ROUND
1 Kansas over 8 Miami
Miami has the talent to win this game, but it’s not a likely outcome. Take the chalk.
2 Louisville over 10 Oklahoma State
Louisville has flown under the radar but they are big, athletic, and control the flow of every game they play in. Oklahoma State will get frustrated by the rangy D from Louisville and get worn down.
11 Rhode Island over 3 Oregon
This is where Oregon will miss Boucher. It’s just the wrong match-up for them because URI was pre-season top 25, is getting healthy at the right time, and can shut down Brooks.
4 Purdue over 12 Nevada
Purdue is too good on offense. In another game that will be a shoot-out, I’ll take the team with more talent at four of the five positions.
SWEET 16
4 Purdue over 1 Kansas
The Big 10 was horrid this season, which is why many people are sleeping on Purdue. They should have been a three seed and I think an overrated Kansas pays the price. They can keep up with Kansas and their frontcourt has the ability to will this team to victory.
2 Louisville over 11 Rhode Island
This game will not be a pretty brand of basketball, but that suits Louisville just fine.
ELITE 8
4 Purdue over 2 Louisville
Louisville eked out a home win against Purdue earlier in the season. Purdue gets its revenge in this game. Louisville’s bigs get in foul trouble early in this one and Purdue’s offense outlasts Louisville’s defense.
SOUTH REGION
FIRST ROUND
1 North Carolina and 2 Kentucky advance
3 UCLA over 14 Kent State
My Bruins know that their window with Lonzo Ball is one year and one year only. Lonzo knows that too. His dad just asked for a heck of a lot of money for a shoe deal.[3] A dominant run in March wouldn’t hurt.
4 Butler over 13 Winthrop
Butler is above-average all the way around. They’re not going to bow out to a team that is merely a lesser version of them. 5’7” Keon Johnson is going to be fun to watch for Winthrop while it lasts though.
12 Middle Tennessee State over 5 Minnesota
Fool me once, shame on you . . .
I lost my national champion pick to MTSU last year. I won’t pick against them this early again. Despite being a 12 seed, MTSU is actually a one-point favorite in Vegas in this game.
6 Cincinnati over 11 Kansas State
Cincy is well-rounded and a beast on defense. They’re also an improved team on offense from last season. They don’t give up easy shots, don’t turn the ball over, and rebound well. Bad match-up for any team seeking to be a giant-killer.
10 Wichita State over 7 Dayton
Wichita State is a six-point favorite. Not high enough of a spread if you ask me.
9 Seton Hall over 8 Arkansas
SEC! SEC! Wait, wrong sport. Never mind, give me Seton Hall.
SECOND ROUND
1 North Carolina over 9 Seton Hall
Sorry Seton Hall, it was fun while it lasted.
10 Wichita State over 2 Kentucky
I have no idea what the committee was thinking making Wichita State a 10-seed, but it was very unfair not only to them, but also to their opponents. Kentucky is obviously more talented, but Wichita State is hungry after being ousted by Kentucky three years ago by 2 points. Wichita State is a better all around team, goes 11 deep, and can score with the best of them. This will be an exciting game. Looking at the bracket, a lot of games in this region will be appointment viewing.
3 UCLA over 6 Cincinnati
Cincinnati is capable of winning this game, but they haven’t played great competition this year and have a great chance of getting run out of the gym by UCLA’s offense here.
12 Middle Tennessee State over 4 Butler
I’m a sucker for a 1-3-1 zone. This senior laden squad rides its top three through the first weekend.
SWEET 16
1 North Carolina over 12 Middle Tennessee State
Pumpkin o’clock for MTSU. But will it come down to the stroke of midnight?[4]
3 UCLA over 10 Wichita State
Man, this is tough. I could easily see either team winning it all. I’m not joking. You knew that about UCLA, but Wichita State is a great team. Give me Lonzo Ball when it comes down to the final few minutes.
ELITE 8
1 North Carolina over 3 UCLA
This pains me, but I just don’t think that the Bruins are disciplined enough on defense to win this game. I’ve watched entire halves of UCLA games where literally nobody for the Bruins is in a defensive stance. If they’re smart, UCLA will run a Ball/Leaf pick and roll effectively but North Carolina plays 40 minutes of ball in this one and there isn’t enough Ball for UCLA to make up for it. Plus, Nate Silver likes UNC, and he’s smart. Except for missing the whole President Mittens McOrange Face[5] winning thing. And if I’m wrong, my Bruins are in the Final Four, so no complaints here!
WEST REGION
FIRST ROUND
1 Gonzaga and 2 Arizona advance
3 Florida State over 14 Florida Gulf Coast
FSU vs. Dunk City in Orlando? Yes please. As to the actual game, FSU doesn’t turn the ball over and is top-25 in offensive and defensive efficiency. Dunk City is going to have to wait another year to repeat their prior Cinderella run.
4 West Virginia over 13 Bucknell
Man, I would love to see Bucknell win this one, but it’s just not in the cards. West Virginia will wear them down with their constant pressure.
12 Princeton over 5 Notre Dame
Neither of these teams will beat themselves. Having watched both of them, I just find Princeton to be a nightmare to guard and Notre Dame gets caught napping on a flex cut screener opening up for a three one too many times.
6 Maryland over 11 Xavier
Maryland is shaky, but Melo Trimble is not. Xavier is a good team, but the best player on the court shines through in a close one.
7 Saint Mary’s over 10 VCU
This is not your uncle who is slightly older than you’s VCU team. Shaka Smart is long gone and while VCU is a good team, Saint Mary’s should not be slept on. They have the ability to bust some brackets wide open if you take them lightly.
8 Northwestern over 9 Vanderbilt
It’s only a first round 8 vs. 9 game. Are you really going to pick against this team to win its first ever game when you know that you have the winner losing in the next round anyway? It’s March Madness. Have some fun.
SECOND ROUND
1 Gonzaga over 8 Northwestern
Have some fun, but don’t kill your bracket. Gonzaga is a far superior team.
7 Saint Mary’s over 2 Arizona
Saint Mary’s is ranked 14th in KenPom and in BPI. Not something you usually read about a 7-seed and that’s because the committee got the Saint Mary’s seed wrong. Arizona is the team that will pay the price. Despite how good they have looked since Allonzo Trier came back from his suspension, Arizona will not be able to force its desired pace of play on Saint Mary’s. The Gaels will out-execute the Wildcats.
3 Florida State over 6 Maryland
Both teams are talented but inconsistent. FSU wins this one by having more possessions via the turnover differential.
4 West Virginia over 12 Princeton
Too much athleticism and backcourt pressure for Princeton to overcome.
SWEET 16
1 Gonzaga over 4 West Virginia
Gonzaga has the talent to withstand West Virginia’s pressure. This is an evenly matched game, with the lone exception being Gonzaga’s far superior shooting from the perimeter.
7 Saint Mary’s over 3 Florida State
Had this game been in January, I’d have taken the Seminoles. But it’s not. Give me the Gaels’ defense and ability to make plays down the stretch.
ELITE 8
1 Gonzaga over 7 Saint Mary’s
An all WCC Elite 8 matchup? Something tells me that the committee saw this as a possibility when they made the bracket. Either that or my bracket is FUBAR. Unfortunately for the Gaels, there’s a reason that the Zags beat them by an average of 17 points in the three games they played each other this year. It’s just a bad matchup for Saint Mary’s.
FINAL FOUR
1 Gonzaga over 2 Duke
It’s not going to hurt the Zags’ cause that this game is in the western half of the country because nobody outside of Duke alums in the stands will be rooting for the Dukies. Not that home court makes a huge difference, but Duke hatred will be omnipresent. Speaking of which, I said this on Twitter, but doesn’t Grayson Allen remind you a little of Matt Damon in School Ties? Hopefully minus the Steve Bannonism, I mean anti-Semitism.
In this game, Gonzaga’s defense will be the equalizer. They will be able to create more open shots than Duke to eke out a ticket to the championship.
1 North Carolina over 4 Purdue
Another track meet that will be fun to watch, but Purdue doesn’t take well-enough care of the ball to beat the Tar Heels.
CHAMPIONSHIP
1 Gonzaga over 1 North Carolina
Gonzaga is as well-rounded a team as you will find and this is where UNC will really miss Paige and Johnson from last year. Mark Few’s patience and commitment pay off. Williams-Goss is your NCAA Tournament MVP.
[1] If you’re new to RW, I’m a third generation UCLA alum, diehard Bruin fan, and feel very dirty rooting on a team coached by Steve Alford.
[2] Last Trump is the worst POTUS in history reference. I promise.
[3] In other news, LaVar Ball might be nuts. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2697797-lavar-ball-talks-beating-michael-jordan-billion-dollar-marketing-deal-for-sons
[4] Too much?
[5] I lied. That’s my last Trump reference though. I promise. Oh, and it’s Mittens because of the small hands.
Devo dire questo – modo sbagliato.
mickelSa