Everybody loves filling out a bracket for March Madness because the NCAA Tournament is where anything can happen. If all you have to do is win once, there is a far greater chance of an upset as opposed to teams faced with having to win a best of seven. Hell, Danny O’Shea beat Kevin O’Shea down Cherry Hill one time.
You feel like a genius when your NCAA bracket comes through and like an idiot when it falls apart, but should you? So much of it is luck. My UCLA Bruins only won the title in ’95 thanks to a Tyus Edney miracle in the second round.
The NBA is far different. If you pick the winner, you likely did your homework. There is far less luck involved and much more of the cream rising to the top. The NBA Playoffs are about matchups and adjustments, not as much about hot streaks and buzzer beaters where coaches who previously tore their Achilles tendons the week prior fall off their stools when their sons hit a game-winning three-pointer. So this season, I’ve decided to fill out an NBA bracket and see what kind of expert I really am. Do I have Jerry West level insight or am I just another Skip Bayless?
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1 Golden State Warriors
Why they will win: They are the best offensive team in the league at putting up points in a hurry. Yes, I know that flies against what I said above about hot streaks, but Steph and Klay are on permanent hot streaks it would seem.
What’s more is that they lead the NBA in defensive efficiency thanks in large part to Steve Kere as well as phenomenal on-ball defense from Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. Add to that the fact that they have if not the NBA MVP then a close second in Steph Curry, and you will have a very scary combination.
Why they will lose: They’re not the darling underdogs like they were when Baron Davis thrilling a raucous Warriors crowd. Now they have to show that the regular season wasn’t a fluke. This could be the year the Warriors almost get there. The Pistons before they beat the Celtics in the 80’s. The Bulls before they beat the Pistons in the 90’s. The moment might get too big for the Warriors and without a consistent low post presence, the fourth quarter in a big game might be too large a task.
Best case scenario: NBA Champions.
Worst case scenario: Lose in the Western Conference Finals.
2 Houston Rockets
Why they will win: The beard. James Harden has carried this team on his back all season. He is as unstoppable a scorer as there is in the NBA and if Dwight Howard is truly healthy, they’ll have a one-two punch that we’ve seen work in this league before.
Why they will lose: Dwight Howard is not healthy. Patrick Beverley is out. Harden has to do too much on his own.
Best case scenario: Lose in the Western Conference Finals.
Worst case scenario: Lose in the first round.
3 Los Angeles Clippers
Why they will win: Blake Griffin is vastly improved on the low block and Chris Paul is as tough as they come while running the show. The Clippers are well-coached and better at executing than in years past.
Why they will lose: Bad match-up. How do the Clippers run their half-court offense? Do the Clippers go small or do they keep on doing what got them there, leaving DeAndre Jordan in there to not play offense, even if that has no chance of working against San Antonio? Doc Rivers is a great coach, but he’s not out-coaching Popovich.
4 Portland Trailblazers
Why they will win: Damian Lillard.
Why they will lose: They’re just too banged up. LaMarcus Aldridge is impossible to defend down low but he is not even close to 100%.
Best case scenario: Lose in the Western Conference Semi-Finals.
Worst case scenario: Lose in the first round.
5 Memphis Grizzlies
Why they will win: They turn the games into slugfests where Z-Bo and Gasol thrive.
Why they will lose: They’ve been banged up all season and still are not nearly healthy.
Best case scenario: Lose in the Western Conference Semi-Finals.
Worst case scenario: Lose in the first round.
6 San Antonio Spurs
Why they will win: They execute better than any team in the league and have the best coach there is today, and maybe even in NBA history. The Spurs will take away what works for you and exploit your weaknesses on defense.
Why they will lose: They have a combined 1,047,921,651 playoff years on their roster, give or take a few. If you can exploit Tony Parker’s inability to defend and rotate on them to the point where their ability to make the extra pass does not break you, you’ve got a chance.
Best case scenario: NBA Champions.
Worst case scenario: Lose in the first round.
7 Dallas Mavericks
Why they will win: Dirk Nowitzki finds the juice to muster one last run. Rondo zones in. Chandler Parsons wasn’t really that hurt and was just resting before the playoffs.
Why they will lose: The Rondo experiment officially blows up and they don’t gel whatsoever.
Best case scenario: Lose in the Western Conference Semi-Finals.
Worst case scenario: Lose in the first round.
8 New Orleans Pelicans
Why they will win: The Brow.
Why they will lose: They are playing the Warriors in the first round.
Best case scenario: Steal a first round game at home.
Worst case scenario: Get swept in the first round.
Western Conference First Round
1 Golden State over 8 New Orleans (5 games)
Note: New Orleans sneaks in a win at home but it’s inconsequential with the Warriors taking care of business in 5.
2 Houston over 7 Dallas (7 games)
Note: There is bad blood here with the Chandler Parsons saga. I expect a physical series that comes down to Harden willing his way to the charity stripe.
6 San Antonio over 3 Los Angeles Clippers (6 games)
Note: Chris Paul can’t win this alone and the Spurs match up too well with the Clips. This will come down to half-court execution and do you really want to bet against the Spurs if that’s the case?
5 Memphis over 4 Portland (6 games)
Note: The injured conquer the really really injured. Damian Lillard will benefit long term from the experience though.
Western Conference Semi-Finals
1 Golden State over 5 Memphis (5 games)
Note: How in the world does a hobbled Memphis go around keeping up with Golden State? I’m waiting for my answer . . .
6 San Antonio over 2 Houston (6 games)
Note: This is not as guaranteed as some people will think going in. Kawhi is a great defender, but Harden will make things very tough on the officials. Houston will get up early at home and win a couple before San Antonio puts the hammer down in games 5 and 6.
Western Conference Finals
1 Golden State over 6 San Antonio (7 games)
Note: This will be an excellent clash of styles. Ultimately, Steph and Klay have some more experience under their belts than before and will demand the ball rather than merely allowing San Antonio to dictate the series via match-up mind games. The Spurs will likely put Kawhi and Danny Green on the Splash Brothers but the Warriors will not let that stop them from running Curry and Klay off screens to free them up. Harrison Barnes didn’t get the Warriors to the 1 seed and they won’t force feed it to him just because Tony Parker is guarding him.
While the Spurs won’t be rattled by the crazy crowd in Oracle Arena, the Warriors thrive off of it and will get that little extra boost in what may be an all-time great series. The games will not be up tempo throughout, but the Warriors will have enough spurts to get them over the hump.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1 Atlanta Hawks
Why they will win: They have a great coach and play as a team more than just about anyone besides the Spurs. You can’t take away any one guy on their offense because the rest of them are just as valuable. The Hawks space the floor and will make you earn a win.
Why they will lose: Paul Millsap is not healed up. This team has consistently won all year because of the chemistry their first unit built. If Millsap can’t be effective, then the Hawks may lose surprisingly early.
Best case scenario: NBA Champions.
Worst case scenario: Lose in the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals.
2 Cleveland Cavaliers
Why they will win: Because they are in the Eastern Conference and will get to coast while everybody in the west is busy decapitating one another. They made a great trade during the season to improve their defense and, oh, they have some guy named LeBron.
Why they will lose: Because they’re not that good yet and Kevin Love looks like the most depressed multi-millionaire basketball player in history since being traded to Cleveland. LeBron is great, but his Miami tenure showed that it can’t be done alone. You need a superior supporting cast. Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving don’t seem to be Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh right now. Plus, who plays the life-saving Ray Allen on the Cleveland roster?
Best case scenario: NBA Champions.
Worst case scenario: Lose in the Eastern Conference Finals.
3 Chicago Bulls
Why they will win: Derrick Rose accepts a secondary role as a slasher while the Bulls run their offense through Noah and Gasol. On defense the Bulls get it together and turn into the team from last year’s playoffs.
Why they will lose: They have lost their identity on defense due to health issues. Everybody knows Coach Thibs is out the door.
Best case scenario: Eastern Conference Champions.
Worst case scenario: Lose in the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals.
4 Toronto Raptors
Why they will win: Kyle Lowry is healthy. They have a tremendous home court advantage and Lou Williams catches fire for two straight months while DeMar DeRozan becomes a household name.
Why they will lose: Jonas Valanciunas is not enough of a frontcourt presence to mask the fact that the rest of the Toronto big men include Amir Johnson, Patrick Patterson, and Psycho T.
Best case scenario: Lose in the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals.
Worst case scenario: Lose in the first round.
5 Washington Wizards
Why they will win: John Wall and Bradley Beal are a woefully underrated backcourt and the Wiz big men are monsters on defense.
Why they will lose: You will not find a more poorly coached playoff team now that Scott Brooks’ team didn’t make the playoffs.
Best case scenario: Lose in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Worst case scenario: Lose in the first round.
6 Milwaukee Bucks
Why they will win: I don’t know. Please tell me.
Why they will lose: Because they’re not really a playoff team.
Best case scenario: They get to spend some time in Chicago instead of Milwaukee.
Worst case scenario: Jason Kidd stabs them in the back.
7 Boston Celtics
Why they will win: The NBA implements NHL style power plays for their series and the Cavaliers keep on picking up 5-minute game misconduct penalties.
Why they will lose: Look at their starting five versus that of the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Best case scenario: Invaluable playoff experience and maybe the genius that is Brad Stevens orchestrates a home win.
Worst case scenario: Get swept in the first round with an average margin of loss of 20.5 points per game.
8 Brooklyn Nets
Why they will win: Mikhail Prokhorov threatens to kill every member of the opposition’s families or bribe them with a collective $150 million.
Why they will lose: Mikhail Prokhorov does not threaten to kill every member of the opposition’s families or bribe them with a collective $150 million.
Best case scenario: The Hawks refuse to show up for the playoffs resulting in a forfeit.
Worst case scenario: See Celtics above.
Eastern Conference First Round
1 Atlanta over 8 Brooklyn (4 games)
Note: Even with Millsap experiencing some slight shoulder soreness, I don’t see the Nets winning any games in this series.
2 Cleveland over 7 Boston (4 games)
Note: There is just too large a talent discrepancy here. I like what Boston is doing with their roster going forward and Brad Stevens was an excellent hire, but getting swept in this series will just be part of the process.
3 Chicago Bulls over 6 Milwaukee Bucks (5 games)
Note: In thinking about it, I think Chicago goes down early in either of the games in Milwaukee leading to resignation that they’ll just have to play a fifth game and win that one by 20.
5 Washington over 4 Toronto (7 games)
Note: My fantasy team is named “Rise of the Beal N’ Wall.” I don’t think Lowry is healthy and he’ll have to be to win this matchup. Notwithstanding, this will be a very entertaining series that goes the distance.
Eastern Conference Semi-Finals
1 Atlanta over 5 Washington (5 games)
Note: This is the coaching equivalent of . . . I can’t think of anything ridiculous enough to compare to for how big of a discrepancy there is here. Washington gets blitzed in this series and hopefully cans their coach in the offseason.
2 Cleveland over 3 Chicago (6 games)
Note: If Chicago were healthy, I would take them, but they’re not. Butler and Rose are injured and Noah hasn’t been 100% for about 18 months. The Bulls have not been playing good enough defense this season and defensive efficiency is not something with which there is an on/off switch. Too much LeBron in this one.
Eastern Conference Finals
1 Atlanta over 2 Cleveland (7 games)
Note: This is not a popular pick and is heavily reliant on a healthy Paul Millsap, but I just like the way Atlanta plays. Everybody says they’re not built to win in the playoffs but I can’t figure out why. They have one of the two best three-point shooters in the game. They have passing big men who can score in the post. Jeff Teague is a legit point guard and they rank 7th in defensive efficiency. What am I missing?
On the flip side you have a Cleveland team too heavily dependent on LeBron having just fought through a bruising series with Chicago. This will be eerily reminiscent of LeBron’s first season in Miami except, as previously stated, his supporting cast here is far weaker than in Miami. Thankfully for him, so is his Eastern Conference competition, but I don’t see Cleveland making the finals.
Of course, all of the above just guarantees that I’m wrong and that it will be Cleveland versus the Clippers in the finals, but whatever. You didn’t read this far to agree with me anyway.
NBA FINALS
1 Golden State over 1 Atlanta (5 games)
This is the year of the Warriors and you couldn’t have a better guy to hoist your league upon than Steph Curry.
On a side note, if the Warriors win, it will be interesting to see how much advertising time Under Armour buys. Could be a huge earnings boost and story fodder for CNBC.
Enjoy the playoffs and go Lakers! Sorry, force of habit.