I hope everybody enjoyed their transitions from football into waiting for football season. And I really hope you enjoy all of the changes we’ve made here at RW*
*Note: We didn’t make any changes. Eric just got lazy and took a couple of months off from writing.
It’s mid-March, the beginning of my favorite time of year. The Masters is in a few weeks, along with the first pitch of baseball season. The NBA and NHL are rounding into their playoffs. European soccer league titles are being decided. The Ides of March was yesterday for all of you Julius Caesar haters out there. And last, but certainly not least . . . March Madness!
It’s the time of year when every sportswriter or wannabe like myself turns into a self-proclaimed college basketball expert. If anything, watching my beloved UCLA Bruins has lowered by basketball IQ by about 50 points after seeing Coach Dad Alford draw up 75% of the plays for his son while the rest of the team stood and watched. Ok, I’m done whining about Steve “I Quit on New Mexico and Defended a Rapist” Alford.
March Madness columns are quite comical. Everybody cites stats, talks about coaching, players who step up, you name it. But we all know that later this week and into next week there will be buzzer beaters, missed free throws down the stretch, and some random person nobody has ever heard of that becomes a household name. All that does is tell you that there is far less rhyme and reason to a tournament where you lose and you’re out. You are going to cheer at some point, cry at another, and finally rip up your brackets as you’ve done so many times before. But you’ll love every minute of it and you know it.
So without further ado, here’s my March Madness column that cites stats, talks about coaching, players who step up, and oh so much more!
First, we’ll go over some rules that I will be abiding by. Some of them I have used in the past. Many of them are new wrinkles because of the state of college basketball. For instance, you can’t go all chalk when there are only three teams with better than 10 to 1 odds to win the tournament (Kansas, Michigan State, UNC). There is a ton of parity because of the poor state of the basketball played in college since the one and done rule destroyed team chemistry.
RW RULES OF THUMB FOR MARCH MADNESS
- Don’t pick a 1 or 2 to lose in the 1st round. I know Florida Gulf Coast was a great story in 2013 and I know there is a ton of parity this year making the 2 through 5 seeds look eerily similar; however, those 15 and 16 seeds still stink. Don’t pick them. Trust me, I’d love to write about the 15 seeds if only to remind you that Bakersfield is a place that looks like it was taken out by a nuke only to have some basketball players survive apparently. Remember though, for every great upset like Florida Gulf Coast over Georgetown there are a million other chalk picks going through. The odds just aren’t with you. A few too many bad upset picks and you’re out of your bracket before things even get underway. We’ve seen more 3 seeds get up-ended in recent years but I usually recommend staying away from a 3-14 upset as well.
- Stats matter. Don’t pick a team that loses the turnover battle. Don’t pick a team that can’t shoot or defend the 3-point line.
- Coaching matters. Look at some of the players to come out of Texas. How did they never go deep into the tournament for about a decade? Coaching.
- Don’t pick an upset if the underdog can’t shoot threes. Conversely, a good higher seed to go against is one that can’t defend the 3-point line. Even if a team keeps pounding the ball inside and getting consistent buckets, if they’re giving up 3 at the other end, they’re losing, they’re getting antsy, and they fall into the shootout trap. Oh, and how many times have we seen some mid-major catch fire from the 3-point line to come through with the upset? Ali Farokhmanesh!
- Don’t pick teams that got into the tournament mostly by how they played at home. Even though some of the early games will feature geographic advantages for some, it’s not the same as playing at home. Different gyms to have the eye adjust to. No student section. Etc. These games are on neutral courts. Plan accordingly.
- Picking upsets is fine, but don’t go bananas. I know this is for fun so picking the right upset does have the added glorious feel to it, but if you want to be at the top of the standings in two weeks, just be careful.
BONUS: The deeper you get into the tournament, the more important it becomes to have a consistent scorer. When I say scorer, I mean someone who can create on his own, not just a shooter. Balance matters, but the team that wins it all will have a go-to guy (e.g. Denzel Valentine, Buddy Hield, even a guy like Perry Ellis). Guaranteed.
BONUS 2: Stop reading here and find someone in your office who has no clue about any of these teams but understands what seedings mean. That person invariably wins all of these pools.
EAST REGION
FIRST ROUND
1 North Carolina and 2 Xavier advance
3 West Virginia over 14 Stephen F. Austin
Not as much of a slam dunk as it looks. West Virginia could be in trouble if they get into foul trouble. They run 10 deep, but Stephen F. Austin could get a ton of free points at the line. Additionally, WVU turns the ball over a ton and that plays into their 14th seeded opponents’ hands. That said, I think West Virginia pounds Stephen F. Austin on the offensive glass and ekes out a win.
4 Kentucky over 13 Stony Brook
I wish I could see it happening, but we’re going to be stuck watching a smug and smiling Calipari in the first round. Kentucky is more talented than Stony Brook by a wide margin.
5 Indiana over 12 Chattanooga
I actually like Chattanooga but Indiana is much closer to a 2 seed than a 5 seed. Yogi Ferrell is going to be a name people remember if they didn’t know it already. Don’t take Indiana and give 12 points though. This game could be tight with Chattanooga’s on the ball pressure.
11 Michigan over 6 Notre Dame
Notre Dame is 321st in 3-point percentage against. The Fighting Irish can score the ball and are well-balanced, but expect Michigan to knock down the 3-ball against the porous Notre Dame defense (if Michigan loses to Tulsa, I wouldn’t be as secure in this 11 over 6 upset).
7 Wisconsin over 10 Pittsburgh
Wisconsin will control the tempo in this one and slow the game down. Pittsburgh’s outside shooting isn’t good enough to take advantage of the Badgers’ struggling 3-point defense.
9 Providence over 8 USC
Andy Enfield has done a tremendous job in a short period of time at USC. But playing against Kris Dunn is not what the doctor ordered for the Trojans. This will be a fun game to watch that could come down to the wire and I’ll stick with my UCLA blood and pick against the Trojans here.
SECOND ROUND
1 North Carolina over 9 Providence
Providence is nowhere near disciplined enough on offense and UNC has the horses to keep up with the Friars’ gunners. UNC easy in this one.
2 Xavier over 7 Wisconsin
Having Xavier go down early is a trendy pick, but sleep on the Musketeers at your own peril. They are a tough squad and have the talent to compete with the best. They’ll get to the line in this one and pull away late.
11 Michigan over 3 West Virginia
West Virginia’s strength of pressuring the ball will play right into the Wolverines’ hands. Michigan is a well-coached squad and they take care of the ball. Cinderella is in maize and blue.
5 Indiana over 4 Kentucky
Yogi Ferrell: I’m counting on you to get Calipari out of our lives early.
SWEET 16
5 Indiana over 1 North Carolina
Here’s where most of you probably stop reading, but I think Indiana can keep up with North Carolina. Indiana’s weakness is inside and UNC isn’t strong enough down low to take advantage. I like Indiana’s gamers to pull a big upset.
2 Xavier over 11 Michigan
Sorry to have gotten my Wolverines’ fans hopes up, but Xavier is built to last. They don’t concede 3-pointers and Michigan is not going to be able to keep the Musketeers out of the paint.
ELITE 8
5 Indiana over 2 Xavier
I was this close to having the Musketeers in the Final Four. In this game I think it comes down to execution and the Hoosiers have the 4th most efficient offense in the country. Xavier’s not far behind at 18th, but it’s enough to make a difference in this one.
MIDWEST REGION
FIRST ROUND
1 Virginia and 2 Michigan State advance
3 Utah over 14 Fresno State
I don’t have Utah going very far, but they will go as far as Jakob Poeltl takes them. Poeltl is an NBA-level big man. Fresno State has nothing for him.
13 Iona over 4 Iowa State
I have no idea why Iowa State can’t win more games. They have a ton of talent but they play so soft. Talent could win out, but I see Iona pulling a mild upset here (Vegas has this as a 7.5 point spread in Iowa State’s favor).
5 Purdue over 12 Arkansas-Little Rock
Arkansas-Little Rock did win at San Diego State earlier this year but they’ve also had their struggles on the road. They will pressure Purdue and might go on a run; however, Purdue is too big and talented to lose this one.
11 Gonzaga over 6 Seton Hall
Seton Hall caught fire and Isaiah Whitehead is someone I could rue the day picking against. He is entirely capable of putting his team on his back. I just like the Sabonis and Wiltjer too much. Plus, Gonzaga’s uniforms are nice and that seems to work for the people who win most of these pools, right?
7 Dayton over 10 Syracuse
Dayton has won games against Iowa, VCU, and at Vanderbilt this season. Plus, they have a guy named Scoochie from New York and Syracuse is overrated.
9 Butler over 8 Texas Tech
It’s nice to see Tubby Smith in the tournament. I’ve always liked him. The Red Raiders are a balanced squad that has bought in, but Butler is too experienced and I think they sneak by.
SECOND ROUND
1 Virginia over 9 Butler
Bodies will be banging into each other in this one. Brogdon is too much for the Bulldogs of Butler. Virginia takes over down the stretch.
2 Michigan State over 7 Dayton
At around the 16:00 minute mark of the 1st half, anybody who picked Michigan State losing this game will be thinking “ruh roh, I think I blew this one.”
11 Gonzaga over 3 Utah
Do you remember the track meet that saw Utah get blown out by Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship game? The Zags will follow that blueprint en route to the Sweet 16.
5 Purdue over 13 Iona
This is not a good match up for Iona. Purdue will be all over them inside.
SWEET 16
1 Virginia over 5 Purdue
Virginia will be able to force Purdue into some turnovers, which will decide a close and well-played game.
2 Michigan State over 11 Gonzaga
This game will not be close.
ELITE 8
2 Michigan State over 1 Virginia
Virginia was one of my favorite teams coming into this tournament. But Michigan State is just better all-around and is mentally tough enough to create good shots against Virginia’s tough defense. Additionally, Virginia does not rebound the ball well enough and will get beat up on the boards.
SOUTH REGION
FIRST ROUND
1 Kansas and 2 Villanova advance
3 Miami over 14 Buffalo
Buffalo plays a fast pace but that won’t bother Miami because Buffalo turns the ball over a ton. Miami is a veteran team and will win this game handily.
4 California over 13 Hawaii
Cal has a sexual scandal of its own to deal with but Hawaii will struggle mightily against Cal’s defense.
5 Maryland over 12 South Dakota State
South Dakota State is a solid basketball team that struggles against teams with athleticism in the back court. That is not a recipe for success against Maryland.
11 Wichita State over 6 Arizona
I can tell you that if I was an Arizona fan, I would have been rooting really hard for Vanderbilt instead of Wichita State. Wichita State is a squad that has tasted tournament success and is playing with a chip on its shoulder. Arizona will need to pound the ball inside, and they can, but Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker will beat Arizona’s inconsistent guards in this upset.
7 Iowa over 10 Temple
Temple struggles to score and will have too many dry spells to beat Iowa.
9 Connecticut over 8 Colorado
UConn’s defense will win this game. Colorado turns the ball over a ton and that will be their undoing despite their ability to shoot the ball.
SECOND ROUND
1 Kansas over 9 UConn
Kansas is a veteran team that will simply be too much for UConn to handle. It will be close for a while, but Kansas is far better on offense than the Huskies are.
2 Villanova over 7 Iowa
Iowa is talented but has been playing sloppy basketball as of late. Villanova is efficient and will take advantage.
11 Wichita State over 3 Miami
These are two solid, veteran teams. It’s pretty much a coin flip. I’ll go with VanVleet, Baker, and take my chances.
5 Maryland over 4 California
Maryland struggles against teams that can crash the boards, something that is not Cal’s strong suit. Maryland gets the edge in this one and if nothing else, I’ll take Melo Trimble down the stretch so I don’t end up covering my ears like this kid.
SWEET 16
1 Kansas over 5 Maryland
Despite doing his best to mold himself into Carlos Boozer’s mini-me, Perry Ellis will be the difference maker in this one for Kansas down low. Too much for Maryland to handle.
2 Villanova over 11 Wichita State
Wichita State’s defense just isn’t quite good enough to topple Villanova, a balanced team with multiple ways to beat you.
ELITE 8
1 Kansas over 2 Villanova
This will be a fun game to watch with two talented, well-coached teams. Kansas wins this game with the outside shot. A name for you to watch is Devonte’ Graham. He has come on big down the stretch and can really score.
WEST REGION
FIRST ROUND
1 Oregon and 2 Oklahoma advance
3 Texas A&M over 14 Green Bay
The Aggies are in the top 35 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. That is not a recipe for a 3 seed to lose in the first round.
4 Duke over 13 UNC Wilmington
This is one of the more annoying Duke teams in history and that’s really saying something. Too bad they’re not going to flame out in the first round again. UNC Wilmington is winning when they force turnovers and Duke doesn’t turn the ball over.
5 Baylor over 12 Yale
I’m going to go against the team trying to pull off an upset while dealing with a sexual misconduct scandal.
6 Texas over 11 Northern Iowa
Northern Iowa is a good team, but I can’t see Shaka Smart having his team anything other than immensely prepared. He’s the anti-Rick Barnes.
10 VCU over 7 Oregon State
This from ESPN: “Oregon St’s relative strengths include shooting 3-pointers and ball handling, but they didn’t rank in the top 40 in either category. However, they struggle at defensive rebounding, where they rank in the bottom 50% of all teams.” When your good news isn’t actually good, that’s not a good sign. VCU’s defense wins in this one.
8 Saint Joseph’s over 9 Cincinnati
This game will be sloppy and brutal to watch. It will come down to the last few possessions and my money is on DeAndre’ Bembry and his unnecessary apostrophe in his first name.
SECOND ROUND
1 Oregon over 8 Saint Joseph’s
Oregon has only shown issues against teams that can bang. Saint Joseph’s weakness is Oregon’s strength. This will be fast paced and Saint Joseph’s will not keep up. Although, if Oregon doesn’t win comfortably, DeAndre’ Bembry will not be fun to be rooting against.
2 Oklahoma over 10 VCU
The Sooners rank in the top-20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Combine that with one of the two or three best players in the tournament in Buddy Hield and you have a team that doesn’t lose a game like this.
3 Texas A&M over 6 Texas
Texas is a year or two away from winning this game. They just don’t play good enough defense for 40 minutes to overcome a team like Texas A&M that will be difficult to score against.
4 Duke over 5 Baylor
This game can go either way. Duke struggles rebounding the ball, which could give them trouble against an athletic Baylor squad. But I think Duke is disciplined enough on offense to solve Baylor’s 1-1-3 zone.
SWEET 16
1 Oregon over 4 Duke
This game is simple. Duke goes only six deep and Oregon’s pace will tire the Blue Devils out.
2 Oklahoma over 3 Texas A&M
Oklahoma is going to make it rain on the Aggies Fat Joe and Lil’ Wayne style. The Aggies do not defend the 3-ball well against teams as talented as Oklahoma, nor do they shoot the three ball well enough to pull this upset.
ELITE 8
2 Oklahoma over 1 Oregon
Despite what the seeding says, Oklahoma is the better team. They have more talent and Oregon will not be able to run them out of the gym as they did to the other teams they played to get here. Still, a good season for the Ducks.
FINAL FOUR
1 Kansas over 2 Oklahoma
These Big XII rivals met twice this season with the Jayhawks winning both games. They say it’s hard to beat a team three times in a season. Both games were decided by 4 points or less. However, I think we’ll see a repeat though with Kansas doing what it does best: Finding a way to win down the stretch.
2 Michigan State over 5 Indiana
This is just the wrong team for Indiana to face. That 88-69 victory by the Spartans over the Hoosiers was not a fluke.
CHAMPIONSHIP
2 Michigan State over 1 Kansas
Kansas’ biggest strength is its shooting but the Spartans rank 14th in the country defending the perimeter. The Spartans also boast the best 3-point shooting team in the country, the most efficient offense in the country, and the tournament’s best player in Denzel Valentine. The Spartans will be cutting down the nets again.