If you are a basketball fan, and can forget about most of the first round, this has been an exceptional playoffs from an entertainment standpoint. Even the Eastern Conference Finals brought about a bit of a surprise with the Raptors forcing the series into a game six. But now we are where many expected us to be with Warriors vs. Cavaliers, Part II.
I will readily admit that I had the Spurs winning it all because I didn’t realize that their roster was a combined Tyrannosaurus Rex years old. Then I was equally surprised by the Thunder, not that they were competitive with the Warriors, but that they should really have been the favorites and blew that series. If you weren’t entertained by that series, well, I don’t know what to tell you.
So let’s take a look at Cleveland and Golden State. Everybody is going to talk about the three-point shooting, and for good reason. Both teams have been historically adept at draining the long ball. If one team catches fire, well, it’s going to be a long night for the opposition. However, as the Thunder showed us, playing defense actually matters in the NBA. The Thunder were able to chase the Dubs off of the three-point line with their athleticism and length. So what will the Cavs do?
Before we get to that, let’s look at the Cavs on offense and how the Warriors match up. Toronto got lost with Cleveland running the same play over and over and over again with LeBron posted up at the high post and the 1 and the 3 running screens off one another on the other elbow. Toronto got confused about 100% of the time and it resulted in plays like the first one in this clip. Golden State will switch this screen and there will be no issue.
When GSW is on defense, look for them to leave Iguodala on an island with LeBron and take away the one thing he’s done to really kill teams and that’s find the open guy out of the double team. The Cavs aren’t playing winning basketball when it’s four guys watching LeBron go 1 on 1. The Warriors will also switch Klay onto Kyrie and have Draymond guard Love when it comes down to crunch time.
The Golden State offense versus the Cavaliers defense is where I see the series being won. The Cavaliers are going to have to figure out a way to handle the pick and roll. Last year, it was Steph Curry and Draymond killing the Cavs in games Golden State won. Why? Because Cleveland jumped and double off of the pick and roll. That left Draymond alone once he caught it to start a 4 on 3 against the rest of the court. GSW picked them apart. If LeBron guards Draymond then Golden State will just have whoever Love is guarding set the screen.
I know what you’re thinking, “but Cleveland didn’t have Kyrie and Love last year.” Yeah, but look at the above paragraphs. The Dubs still match up well with Cleveland, even with those two back. And what on Earth does Cleveland do with them on defense? Love can play defense inside, and he moves okay for a big 4, but he’s not keeping up with Steph or Klay if he gets switched onto one of them. And you can’t jump and double as discussed above. So what do you do? I think that’s the bind that Cleveland is in. What will they do? Probably bench Love again instead of figuring out a real solution. That won’t win this series. Not to mention the fact that Cleveland’s current lineups have nobody really protecting the rim besides LeBron.
If it were me, I wouldn’t pick up Steph or whomever brings the ball up until two feet from the three-point line. In other words, dare Golden State to shoot long threes early in the possession. Yes, they will make their fair share, but if and when they start missing, their offense will look putrid as we saw in the beginning of the OKC series. If you jump and hedge closer to the basket, you have less room to make up and GSW has less spacing once they catch that inevitable pass. Is that a cure-all? No, but LeBron and co. would rather play an up and down series than chase Steph and Klay around screens and have other guys show and recover for 20 seconds of the shot clock every time down.
When it’s all said and done, Cleveland will have won a couple of games because LeBron is just amazing. But Golden State has the better matchups to win this series. Dubs in 6.